Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 22, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 618 (S10E41)
produced an M2/Sf at 21/2352 UTC, as well as several C-class events.
The region has continued to grow and has formed a delta
configuration as leader penumbral spots of opposite polarity have
consolidated. Region 615 (N18W13) managed to produce a C1 event at
21/2220 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable. Region 617 (S10W60)
exhibited some minor surge activity but did not manage to produce
any flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected be mostly
low, but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated M-class
activity from Region 618.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds
continue to be elevated in the 450-500 km/s range.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (23 May), but
should transition to mostly quiet as the high speed solar wind is
expected to decline gradually late on the 23rd through the 24th.
Conditions should be mostly quiet with occasional periods of
unsettled levels for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 May).

III. Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May

  • Class M 35/35/35
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 May 102
  • Predicted 23 May-25 May 100/100/095
  • 90 Day Mean 22 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 006/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 010/013
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 010/012-005/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 20/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.