Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 March 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Mar 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1440 (S25W38) produced
todays only C-class flare at 22/1750Z. This region appears to be
decaying and currently shows a beta-gamma configuration. Three new
sunspot groups were numbered today: Region 1441 (S27W56), Region
1442 (N13E49) and Region 1443 (N16E62). All of these regions were
small, quiet, and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1440.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 22/1800Z to 22/2100Z. Solar wind data appeared to indicate a
solar sector boundary crossing at about 22/1930Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).

III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 102
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05