Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares or sunspots were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Unsettled conditions were observed at mid-latitudes between 22/03-06Z. The continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole is reflected in ACE solar wind observations. Velocities ranged between 386-472 km/s, and interplanetary Bz ranged from -3 nT to +7 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).

III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Mar 069
• Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 003/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 01/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01