Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 862 (S06W51) produced an isolated C2.1 flare at 21/2326 UTC along with numerous B-class flares. This region retains its beta gamma magnetic configuration, while there appears to be a decline in areal coverage. New Region 863 (N08W52) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period occurred between 22/0300 and 22/0600 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 March. On 24 and 25 March, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with the possibility of isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Mar 076
• Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/008-008/012-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05