Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 22, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 574 (S03W13)
produced a C8/Sf flare at 22/0616Z. This region continues to decay
and has simplified in magnetic complexity to a beta configuration.
Region 578 (N16E20) shows signs of decreasing area and produced a
number of B-class and minor C-class flares today. New Region 579
(S11E48) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have the potential for C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Mar 116
  • Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 110/115/120
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 009/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 008/008-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.