Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 574 (S03W13)
produced a C8/Sf flare at 22/0616Z. This region continues to decay
and has simplified in magnetic complexity to a beta configuration.
Region 578 (N16E20) shows signs of decreasing area and produced a
number of B-class and minor C-class flares today. New Region 579
(S11E48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Mar 116
- Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 110/115/120
- 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 009/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
