Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New Region 1511
(N15W17) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period. Region 1511 is capable of isolated
C-class flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23 – 25 June).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 088
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 090/090/095
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05