Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1082 (N26W37)
produced isolated low-level B-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (23 – 24 June). Field
activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, late on day three (25 June) due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream forecasted to become
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 073
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 073/073/074
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01