Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08W01) produced a
C1.8/Sf flare at 1633 UTC. Region 779 (S19W82) is in decay and is
rotating around the west limb quietly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 779 and 780 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 23 June. Unsettled to active levels are
expected on 24 and 25 June, with a chance for isolated minor
storming as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
- Class M 10/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Jun 080
- Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 001/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/20
- Minor storm 05/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/30
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
