Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jun 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 635 (S12W27) continued on a decaying trend today while
maintaining a delta structure in the trailing spot cluster.
Multiple B-class flares were produced from this region throughout
the period. Region 634 (N12W44) underwent significant decay in
sunspot area during the period although it continues to retain a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 635 remains capable of producing an
isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun

• Class M 50/50/50
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Jun 117
• Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 115/110/110
• 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 003/007-004/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05