Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 23, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 635 (S12W27) continued on a decaying trend today while
maintaining a delta structure in the trailing spot cluster.
Multiple B-class flares were produced from this region throughout
the period. Region 634 (N12W44) underwent significant decay in
sunspot area during the period although it continues to retain a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 635 remains capable of producing an
isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Jun 117
  • Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 115/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 003/007-004/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 01/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 01/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.