Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1526 (S18E39) produced the largest event of the
period, a C1 x-ray flare at 21/2324Z. The other regions on the disk
remained stable and quiet. Two new, yet to be numbered regions,
rotated onto the visible disk early in the period. Both regions
appear to have sunspots, however SWPC forecasters are awaiting more
data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next three days (23-25 July), as a coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 094
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 013/015-012/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 35/35/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/25