Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W42) and
1259 (N25E18) were both Dso Beta groups, remaining quiet and stable
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare over the next 3 days
(23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the period, with the
exception of an isolated period of active conditions between
22/06-09Z due to night time sub storming. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with an isolated nighttime active
period possible on day 1 (23 July) from coronal hole effects.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for days 2-3 (24-25
July), as high speed stream effects are expected to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 092
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/20
Minor storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/30/20
Minor storm 40/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/01/01