Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 22 2231 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of occasional mid-level and upper level B-class flares. Most of
these were from Region 1089 (S23E33) although Region 1087 (N18,
rotated beyond west limb) also contributed. Activity appeared to be
on a general decreasing trend during the last few hours of the
period. Region 1089 appeared to be simplifying somewhat and showed a
slight decline in overall sunspot area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next two days (23-24 July). The
increase is expected due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 25 July.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 088
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05