Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the last 24 hours. The visible solar disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft observed a gradual increase in
the solar wind velocity starting around 22/0000Z. This was followed
by an increase in density, variations in the IMF Bz (-17/+14 nT),
and enhanced Bt (peaks to 17 nT) between 22/0000Z and 22/0800Z.
Current solar wind speeds are averaging around 470 km/s indicating
the influence of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated
active levels, for the next two days (23-24 July). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for day three (25 July) as the coronal hole
high speed stream begins to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 068
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 068/068/069
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01