Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jul 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
July 23, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W31) is spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind data at ACE indicated the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocity increased significantly at about 1300Z to values ranging from 580-630 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active during day one (23 July), mostly unsettled on day two (24 July), and quiet on day three (25 July). The increase in activity is expected due to effects from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Jul 066
  • Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 066/066/066
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 015/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/10
  • Minor storm 15/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/25/10
  • Minor storm 20/10/01
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.