Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jul 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jul 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 652 (N08E06)
produced a M9.1 flare at 22/0032 UTC as well as several C-class
flares from 0633 to 0808 UTC. A CME was observed shortly after the
M9 flare on LASCO emerging southward, although it was not earthward
directed. Two coronal mass ejections occurred simultaneously to
form a faint full-halo CME observed on LASCO imagery. These CMEs
may be associated with one or more of the previously mentioned
C-class flares. Region 652 was observed to decay slightly over the
past 24 hours while maintaining its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 652 maintains its potential to produce
major flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A geomagnetic sudden
impulse was observed at 1028 UTC with a 25 nanoTesla deviation.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions have been observed since
the sudden impulse. Solar wind speed at ACE steadily increased
after the sudden impulse from 400 km/s to 700 km/s. Bz maintained a
steady southward orientation, up to as much as -19 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active tomorrow (23 July) from the continued
effects of the CME arrival already observed, and the possible
arrival of another CME shock on late 23 July from the CME observed
on LASCO today. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled
levels on 24-25 July.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 173
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 170/160/160
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 020/025-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 30/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 35/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/05