Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1401 (N16W26) and 1402
(N29W23) produced occasional C-class flares. The largest of these
was a C7 at 22/0257Z. Region 1401 showed gradual spot decay during
the period. Gradual trailer spot growth was observed in Region 1402.
No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted
regions. No new regions were numbered. There was no Earth-directed
CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (23 – 25 January) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1401 or Region 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with brief major storm levels at high latitudes. An interplanetary
shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 22/0514Z, likely
indicating the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. This
was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) at 22/0614Z (31
nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to
unsettled to minor storm levels following the SI.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels on day 1 (23 January) as CME effects gradually subside. Quiet
conditions are expected during days 2 – 3 (24 – 25 January).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 141
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/01/01
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/15/15
Minor storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01