Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1149 (N17W19) has grown
in area and produced a C2 flare at 22/0828Z. Region 1147 (N24W22)
was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1149.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 – 25 January).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 088
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/