Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 January 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1041 (S25E50) produced several B-class flares, the
largest being a B9 flare at 22/1711Z. Region 1041 is stable and
classified as a Eso-beta with 7 spots. New Region 1042 (N22W28)
emerged on the disk today and is classified as a Cso-beta with 3
spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for a M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (23-25
January).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 082
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 085/085/086
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00