Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels throughout the forecast period (23 – 25 January).

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Jan 070
• Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 070/070/075
• 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01