Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jan 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There
were three C-class flares: a C3 at 0432 UTC from the west limb at
S07, a C1 at 1245 UTC from the west limb at N14, and a C1 at 2053
UTC from the west limb at N15. The first flare was probably from old
Region 719 which recently rotated around west limb, and the other
two were probably from Region 720 which rotated off the disk today.
With the departure of Region 720, Region 725 (S04W49) is now the
largest group on the disk with an area of about 190 millionths.
Region 725 has been growing steadily but so far has produced only
minor flare activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a chance for an M-class event, and a slight
chance for a major flare event, from Region 720 during the next 24
hours (23 January). However, the likelihood for M-class or higher
level events is expected to decline strongly for the 2nd and 3rd
days (24-25 January) as the region gets further beyond the west
limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from the
beginning of the period (21/2100 UTC) through 22/0600 UTC. Since
0600 UTC conditions have been mostly unsettled. Solar wind
signatures show a steady decline in velocity from around 950 km/s at
the beginning of the interval down to about 650 km/s by 22/2100 UTC.
Bz has been weak and density has been low since 22/0200 UTC up to
the current time. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes continued to
decline today and appear to have dropped below threshold of 10 PFU
after 22/1755 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active tomorrow (23 January) in response
to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with
some active periods are expected for 24-25 January.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

• Class M 40/25/10
• Class X 20/10/01
• Proton 20/10/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Jan 102
• Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 095/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 030/061
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 020/030
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 016/020-015/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/30
• Minor storm 30/30/25
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05