Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1161 (N11W56)
decayed slightly but still maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 1162 (N17W59) was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class event from either Region
1161 or Region 1162.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on days one and two (23-24
February). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three
(25 February). The increase in activity is forecast due to the
expected slight increase in solar wind speed to around 480 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 091
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 090/088/085
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01