Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind observations show a continued influence from the recurrent coronal hole. Velocities have ranged between 430 to 490 km/s with interplanetary Bz between -3/+5 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (23-25 February).

III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Feb 070
• Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 004/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01