Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Unsettled to active periods were due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 700 km/s to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 23 and 24 February as a coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 25 February.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Feb 076
• Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/017
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/020-010/020-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/25
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05