Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 22, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 564 has
produced a number of minor C-class flares, the largest of which was
at C1.9 at 22/2000Z. Region 564 has grown considerably over the
past twenty four hours and may be developing a magnetic delta
configuration in its intermediate spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 564 is likely to produce more C-class flares.
If the polarity mixing in the intermediate spots continue, a chance
for isolated M-class flares will increase.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible from a weak recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Feb 104
  • Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.