Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 564 has
produced a number of minor C-class flares, the largest of which was
at C1.9 at 22/2000Z. Region 564 has grown considerably over the
past twenty four hours and may be developing a magnetic delta
configuration in its intermediate spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 564 is likely to produce more C-class flares.
If the polarity mixing in the intermediate spots continue, a chance
for isolated M-class flares will increase.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible from a weak recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Feb 104
- Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
