Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2003
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N18W06) was the
main flare producer, generating occasional subflares. The C5/Sf at
0929 UTC from Region 290 was the most energetic event of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Remnants of the high-speed
stream persist, generating short-lived episodes of active
conditions. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Feb 107
- Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 110/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 010/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
