Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1036 (S27W58) produced a
C7/Sf flare at 22/0456Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity 531 km/sec) and discrete frequency radio bursts,
the largest of which was 4900 sfu at 245 MHz. There was also a
faint, slow-moving partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the flare (estimated velocity 300 km/sec). Region
1036 gradually decayed from a D-type to a B-type spot group during
the period. Additional isolated low-level C-class flares and
occasional B-class flares also occurred during the period. Region
1035 (N31W98) crossed the west limb early in the period. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 – 2 (23 – 24 December) with a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare. Activity is expected to drop to very low
levels on day 3 (25 December) as Region 1036 departs the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (23 – 25
December). The CME mentioned above is not expected to significantly
disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 082
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 078/076/074
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01