Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations at ACE showed solar wind velocities varied between 571-652 km/sec through the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (23-25 December). Isolated active conditions are possible at high latitudes on 23 December.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Dec 072
• Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 007/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 006/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01