Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Newly number region 838 (N17E34) produced two low level C-flares. The largest of these flares was a C3.5 flare at 22/0948 UTC. Region 839 (N19W08) was also numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Further C-flare activity is possible from Region 838. Old Region 826 (S06, L=259) is due to rotate on the visible disk on 23 December. This region produced four M-flares during its last rotation.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Dec 088
• Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 006/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 005/007-005/007-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05