Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1272 (S21W08) produced a
C1 event at 21/2316Z, and 1271 (N17W16) produced a long duration C1
event at 22/1604Z. Both regions also produced several B-class
flares. Region 1274 (N18E42) produced a notable B9 event at
22/0949Z. Region 1271 had significant intermediate spot and
penumbral growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, consistent with effects
from a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 Aug) as effects
from the high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 108
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 110/112/112
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01