Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 22, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. No flares were observed during the period and no new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (23-25 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 August), at quiet to
unsettled levels on day two,(24 August), and unsettled to active
levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day three
(25 August). This increase in activity is due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 075
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-007/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/30
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/10

SpaceRef staff editor.