Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The disk was spotless, and
no flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the residual
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream that rotated
off the disk yesterday (21 August).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during the forecast period (23 – 25 August).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 067
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01