Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 22, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 22 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 798 (S11W62) produced
an M5/1n at 22/1727 UTC. This flare was associated with significant
radio output that included a 7100 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, 22000 sfu
at 245 MHz, and type IV sweep activity. This region also produced an
M2/1f flare at 22/0133 UTC that included significant radio output.
Both flares were associated with apparent earth-directed CMEs.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Another major flare is possible in Region 798.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. This activity is believed to be the result of a high-speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux passed the
10 pfu event threshold at 22/2040 UTC. This event resulted from the
M5 flare discussed in Part IA. Today’s observed Penticton 10.7 flux
was flare enhanced. The daily background value reported in Part IV
was estimated to be 105 sfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25
due to the CME activity which occurred today. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 80/20/10
  • PCAF red

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Aug 157
  • Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 105/105/100
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/010-020/025-020/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/50/50
  • Minor storm 15/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/60/60
  • Minor storm 15/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.