Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 22, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity continues to be very low. Minor B-class
activity was observed in Region 661 (N06W47). This region, which
still maintains over 400 millionths of white light area coverage, is
in a slow decay phase. With the exception of Region 665 (N04W15),
which was numbered today, all active regions were stable or in

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a small chance of a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a slightly elevated solar
wind speed and a predominantly southward IMF Bz. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Aug 115
  • Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 115/115/110
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 014/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 012/015-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.