Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Aug 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z

to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 69 (S07W71)

produced an M5/2b event at 22/0157 UTC.  This event had an

associated 260 sfu Tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep.

This region has decreased slightly in size and sunspot count and

continues to maintain the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

New Region 87 (S07E74), numbered today, produced an M1/1n event at

22/1802 UTC.  Another region was numbered today as Region 86

(S21E29).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate to high.  Region 69 remains capable of producing a major

event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions.  A greater

than 10 MeV proton event began at 22/0440 UTC and is still in

progress.  The tentative maximum for this event has been 36 pfu at

22/0940 UTC.  Also, a greater than 100 MeV event began at 22/0340

UTC, reaching a maximum of 1 pfu at 22/0510 UTC and ended at 22/0615

UTC.  This activity is associated with the M5 event observed today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.

Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 24 August in

response to the M5 event observed today.  The greater than 10 MeV

proton event is expected to continue into 23 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

Class M    75/75/75

Class X    20/20/20

Proton     99/50/40

PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           22 Aug 220

Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  215/215/210

90 Day Mean        22 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  019/041

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  015/015-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/35/30

Minor storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    05/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/40/35

Minor storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10