Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1195 (S18E28)
produced two M-class flares: an M1/Sn at 0457Z and an M1/1n at
1553Z. There was not any indication of a CME associated with either
of these events. Region 1195 dominated the activity during the past
24 hours and produced numerous additional C-class x-ray events. The
group showed steady growth throughout the period and is currently
estimated to have 370 millionths sunspot area. The group also shows
some magnetic complexity (Beta-Gamma); particularly interesting is
an east-west section of the inversion line in the center of the
group which has a favorable configuration for building shear. Region
1193 (N17W45) is gradually decaying and did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days. Additional M-class flares are
likely from Region 1195, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 115
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01