Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Apr 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
April 22, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new
region rotating around the east limb at S05 may have been the source
of a CME observed off the southeast limb at around 22/0630Z. The few
sunspot groups on the visible disk are small and stable, and
exhibited no significant changes or activity this period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating around the east limb at S05 may
elevate activity levels slightly on 24 and 25 April.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods. A
weak disturbance is expected on 22 and 23 April as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Apr 077
  • Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 080/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 002/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 008/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 015/020-010/020-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/15
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

  • B. High Latitudes
  • Active 40/35/20
  • Minor storm 20/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.