Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Apr 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new
region rotating around the east limb at S05 may have been the source
of a CME observed off the southeast limb at around 22/0630Z. The few
sunspot groups on the visible disk are small and stable, and
exhibited no significant changes or activity this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating around the east limb at S05 may
elevate activity levels slightly on 24 and 25 April.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods. A
weak disturbance is expected on 22 and 23 April as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Apr 077
- Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 080/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 008/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 015/020-010/020-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/15
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
- B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/35/20
- Minor storm 20/15/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
