Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Apr 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Apr 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 596 (S08E04)
produced an M1/1n event at 22/0219 UTC. This region continues to be
the region of interest as it approaches the center of the visible
solar disk. With a white light area coverage of 400 millionths and
a magnetic beta-gamma configuration the region has also displayed a
weak delta in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 596 remains capable of producing an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Apr 117
- Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 120/120/120
- 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/010-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
