Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Apr 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
April 22, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Apr 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 596 (S08E04)
produced an M1/1n event at 22/0219 UTC. This region continues to be
the region of interest as it approaches the center of the visible
solar disk. With a white light area coverage of 400 millionths and
a magnetic beta-gamma configuration the region has also displayed a
weak delta in the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 596 remains capable of producing an isolated
M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions

III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Apr 117
  • Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 120/120/120
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/010-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.