Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1 flare was observed
at 21/1223Z from Region 1301 (N20E41). Regions 1295 (N22W47) and
1301 showed increases in area and produced occasional C-class flares
during the period. Three CMEs were observed towards the NE quadrant,
none of which are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares from Regions 1295 and 1301
during the period (22-24 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels at mid-latitudes, with
isolated unsettled to active levels at high-latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during the period
(22-24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 144
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 144/144/140
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01