Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. New Region 1109 (N19E75) was numbered today as it rotated
onto the visible disk. Region 1109 produced a few C-class events,
the largest was a C1 flare at 21/0738Z. Region 1108 (S30E14)
decreased in areal coverage and sunspot number but has retained its
bi-polar magnetic classification. Region 1106 (S22W69) has continued
to decay and now has an alpha magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (22-24 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two
(22-23 September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Mostly unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 085
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01