Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was one B-class
event during the past 24 hours; a B1 x-ray event at 1256Z from newly
numbered Region 1026 (S29E63). The current proximity of the region
to the limb prevented detailed analysis. The remainder of the disk
was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A slow increase in background levels is expected as Region 1026
rotates more fully into view. There is a chance for additional
isolated B-class events from Region 1026.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 September).
Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third
days (23-24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 072
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 074/076/077
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01