Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the forecast period (22 – 24 September).

III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Sep 068
• Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01