Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1319 (N12W79) produced an M1 at 21/1300Z associated with Type
II (estimated speed 789 km/s) and Type IV Radio Sweeps. Further
analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. The region
has grown in areal coverage and has shown intermediate spot
development. Region 1324 (N10E27) produced some C-class activity.
New Region 1329 (S30W42) was numbered today and is considered a
Cso-beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely for the next three days (22-24
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22-24 October).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 168
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01