Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Region 1028 (N26E38) has decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (22 – 23 October). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 October) in response
to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 071
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01