Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Oct 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 21 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 815 (N07W19) showed very little change from yesterday and remains a simple beta magnetic spot group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 22 October. Isolated active periods are possible beginning late on 23 October, due to a favorably-positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 21 Oct 075
- Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/008-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/30
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/35/35
- Minor storm 10/20/20
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10
