Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1354 (S15E17) and Region
1356 (N15E55) each produced a few low-level C-class events. Region
1354 showed slight decay in its trailer spots and is considered a
Dso-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1356 grew significantly in areal coverage as it rotated farther onto
the visible disk and is an Ehc-beta type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
throughout the period (22-24 November) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1354 and 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the period (22-24 November).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 141
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01