Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1033 (N18E07)
remains a Bxo-beta region. No significant flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The SOHO/C2 images observed a slow moving
(around 200 km/s) Earth directed CME at 21/0755Z. EIT images also
showed a wave pattern, associated with the CME, located in the
vicinity of a filament channel around S40E30.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft indicate the continued influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed rose through the
period from 430 -575 km/s with Bz fluctuations from -8 to +9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
November).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 076
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01