Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery at 21/0554 UTC from behind the east limb. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 22 November. On 23 and 24 November, active to minor storm periods are possible, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Nov 078
• Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/075
• 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 003/005-008/010-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/30
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/35/30
• Minor storm 05/15/30
• Major-severe storm 01/05/20