Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Nov 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery at 21/0554 UTC from behind the east limb. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 22 November. On 23 and 24 November, active to minor storm periods are possible, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 21 Nov 078
- Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/075
- 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 001/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/002
- Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 003/005-008/010-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/30
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/35/30
- Minor storm 05/15/30
- Major-severe storm 01/05/20