Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 822 (S08W37) has decayed in both size and magnetic complexity. Regions 823 (S15W63) and 824 (S12E57) have been quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 822.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Nov 095
• Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 095/095/090
• 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 005/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01