Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 21 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A Region on the East limb
at S16 produced a B5.4 flare at 21/1656 UTC. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
levels were due to the lingering presence of a high speed coronal
hole stream. At approximately 21/0000 UTC, solar wind speed
increased to an estimated 640 km/s and has gradually declined to 590
km/s as of the end of the summary period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

• Class M 05/10/10
• Class X 01/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 21 Nov 101
• Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 100/105/110
• 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/018
• Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 008/015-004/010-004/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05